The A-10 is Failing. VCU Just Might Profit
KenPom rates the Atlantic 10 (A-10) as only the 8th best conference in college basketball, notably behind the abysmally shallow West Coast Conference (WCC), which is shaping up to be a 1-bid league with the Gonzaga Bulldogs as the obvious favorites. But away from the west coast, let's dive a bit further into the real struggle that the A-10 has run into so far this year.
By record alone, the Saint Louis Billikens lead the A-10 with their 3-0 conference record and 10-6 overall record. But it's hard to have a straight-faced discussion about the Billikens considering their double-digit losses to the likes of Wichita St. and San Francisco, along with losses to subpar programs like Wofford and Illinois State. The Billikens don’t stand out in anything specific either: they struggle with pushing the pace in transition, they shoot free throws at an abysmal 65.5% clip, and they rank second to dead last in bench minutes for all of D1 College Basketball.
Dayton’s start to this year was reminiscent of their 2020 Obi Toppin-led squad, who also competed in the Maui Invitational and also had a masterful non-conference schedule. Still, the Achilles heel of that team was their undefeated record in A-10 play. Despite this year’s flagship wins over Connecticut and Marquette, their New Year’s losses to George Washington and UMass have immediately offset all of their early season progress. Two losses of that caliber as a start to their conference campaign makes the Flyers a tough sell going forward. They still have plenty of talent with Nate Santos, Zed Key, and Enoch Cheeks, but the Flyers have absolutely blundered any chance at an at-large bid for this year's tournament.
Nate Santos (Left) talks with coach Anthony Grant (Right)
The final possible horse in the A-10 is St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies gleam with their 14-2 overall record, but a deeper look under the surface shows that that record came mostly via a weak non-conference schedule. In fact, St. Bonaventure’s non-conference strength of schedule ranks 306th hardest in the nation. Beyond their easy schedule, though, the Bonnies slow tempo style makes it so that if they are sped up in any way, their percentages plummet. In transition, St. Bonaventure shoots 26.5% from beyond the arc and has pretty subpar efficiency overall. Along with this, there is really no premium star for the Bonnies to rely on down the stretch. Chance Moore and Melvin Council are undoubtedly talented, but the Bonnies’ offense has noticeable slowdowns when defenses make a point to halt these two. An off-note shoutout to Lajae Jones, the transfer from Tarleton State, who has been wildly efficient and effective in a limited role.
New Bonnies transfer Lajae Jones (left) with his father (right)
In my eyes, that leaves the VCU Rams as possible A-10 champs in a division that will almost assuredly have no at-large bid-getters. VCU thrives in their well-roundedness on both sides of the ball. Still, the Rams mainly hang their hat on the defensive side of the ball with their top 25 defensive efficiency, high-tier interior defense, and 15% block rate compared to the 9% D-1 average. VCU’s only major wins have come versus Miami and Colorado State, but their heartbreaking losses to Nevada, New Mexico, and St. Bonaventure have made them one of the unluckiest teams in the nation. As the 350th luckiest team in Division 1 play, the Rams have a 12% worse record than predicted. Despite being a team that has had a wildly unlucky start to a season, the Rams continue to improve, and according to KenPom, they are only slated for one more expected loss on the season (@ Dayton). Veteran scorers Joe Bamisile and Max Shulga have found ways to continue to improve during their second seasons in Ryan Odom’s VCU offense. As an older team with plenty of D-1 experience (42nd in the nation), VCU may surprise some folks with their offensive rebounding strength, high-value scoring, and extremely intense defense.
