Keys to Victory: How Tom Izzo and Michigan State are Poised to Succeed
Like most legendary programs, Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans hang their hat on outstanding defense. The same is true for Izzo’s Spartan culture that has been cultivated in East Lansing.
For the 2024-2025 season, Izzo’s Spartans rank 12th in defensive efficiency (KenPom) and have done a fantastic job of denying their opponents of the three-ball all year (28.6%). Looking historically at Izzo’s squads, this one is a bit reminiscent of the 2020 Spartans, who finished the regular season at 9th in the AP Poll. Who knows how that team may have fared in March, but their 13th-ranked defense and 28.7% opponent 3-point rate draws major comparisons to this year’s team, which holds similar numbers thus far.
The 2020 Michigan State Spartans posing as Big 10 Champions
Another similarity to that 2020 Michigan St. team is the way that the 2025 Spartans have been able to run the break. To keep it simple, the Spartans have spurred their transition offense in an effective and often manner. For reference, last year’s Michigan State held a top 1% efficiency in their transition offense, but they were only able to get on transition at an 18% clip (65.7th percentile). The 2020 Spartans, on the other hand, got out on transition at a 22% rate and 1.32 adj efficiency (86.8th percentile). This is wildly similar to this year’s team, which gets into their transition offense at a 21.5% rate and 1.39 adjusted efficiency (97.5th percentile).
Record-wise, the Spartan’s 14-2 record is nothing to sneeze at. A tough Kansas matchup where Hunter Dickinson had his way and a Maui loss to a hot Memphis team are the only two ways in which Izzo’s squad has notches in that column. Recent road wins over Ohio State and Northwestern show the continued poise both on the road and defensively. Holding both of these teams to less than 70 points is a feat in itself, much more in their own gym.
An interesting component of this Michigan State team is the lack of a true star. Still, highlighting Jaden Akins (14.1 ppg), Jeremy Fears Jr. (7.9 ppg, 6.4 ast), and Jase Richardson (9.7 ppg) is important in understanding their success by the numbers. For Akins and Fears Jr.ill, Akins main downfall has come beyond the arc. , it’s a case of yin and yang, where weaAkins, for omin%,eans strength for the other. Jaden Akins 65.6 min% leads the way for the Spartans. In these minutes, the Senior has shown serious poise around turnover-to-steal70% fg/blk rate at the rack. His turnover to steal rate has also shown through as a reliable option with the ball in his hands (10.7%). Still, Akins main downfall has come beyond the arc. Still, his 29.1 3pt% is mainly a product of early season woes that included 0-4 vs Colorado, recently, and 2-7 vs Western Michigan. As of recent though, he has found his stroke with performances like 2-3 vs Northwestern and 4-Jr.vs Nebraska. For freshman teammate Jeremy Fears Jr, almost the opposite has been true. In his few attempts, Fears has been a steady weapon from beyond the arc, boasting his 46.2% 3pt%. Contrary to Akins, Fears has struggled with keeping the turnovers at bay. His 26.3% TO%/Steal% could be a tough reality for a gulasto has played point guard for 62% of the time (Last 5 games). Finally, freshman Jase Richardson has been a quiet, yet efficient and steady weapon from everywhere on offense. His 67.8% effective fg% ranks him as a highly efficient outlet for this Michigan State offense.
An important final note: The Spartans don’t rely on the three ball whatsoever. Only 20.8% of shots in Izzo’s offense this year are beyond the arc, compared to a team like Duke, where 38% of shots come from deep. Still, this hasn’t fazed the Spartans thus far. KenPom projects wins over Rutgers, USC, UCLA, and Oregon in the coming weeks. Per usual: ignore the three-point woes because they really don’t shoot it all that much, trust the defensive poise that has them ranked 12th in the nation, and never count Izzo out in March.
