January Bracketology: How Big 12 Bubble Teams Can Earn Their Stripes
Cincinnati, UCF, and Texas Tech all sit on the Big 12 bubble. For these teams, this stretch from early January to late February is the supreme factor that all but defines their shot at an NCAA bid. In a league that is dominated by the likes of Houston, Iowa State, and Kansas, capturing road wins versus conference middle-runners defines a season.
The Cincinnati Bearcats enter mid-January after a tough stretch of losses that came via the Big 12 frontrunners. January 7th’s road blowout to Baylor, January 11th’s double-digit home loss to Kansas, and an unsuccessful comeback to Arizona on January 4th will all sting as possible major Q1 wins come March. A win in even just one of these games could’ve seriously shifted the way their resume will be seen at the season’s end.
Still, the Bearcats were touted as a talented team early in the season for a reason. In the week eight AP Poll, the Bearcats were ranked as the #17 team in the country with their 10-1 record at the time. Still, an easy early season schedule and rivalry wins over Dayton and Xavier, both of which have become lower quality wins since, were the main hope for Cincinnati before this recent stretch of deficiency in play. Team records Bracketology gives the Bearcats a 23% chance at an NCAA tournament bid.
All hope is not lost for Cincinnati, but things look bleak. Their 7th-ranked defensive adj. efficiency is what the Bearcats hang their hat on, but sub-50-point offensive performances like their games versus Baylor and Kansas makes winning nearly impossible. In these next weeks, Cincinnati faces off against Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, and West Virginia, the fate of which will no doubt define whether or not they have a bid come March. In order to triumph from their Big 12 campaign, something in the offense has to click. Simply put, a 127th-ranked offense that struggles at shooting threes and free throws cannot succeed as-is.
The UCF Golden Knights ended 2024 with a massive New Year's Eve win over Texas Tech. This win was a fantastic start to their conference campaign and gave the Golden Knights a glimmer of hope after a semi-average non-conference run. Since then, UCF has essentially kept the status quo. A 51-point loss to Kansas hurt for sure, but tight wins over Colorado and Arizona State put some wind back in their sails.
Statistics-wise, the Golden Knights don’t do anything fantastic. Their offense ranks 59th in adjusted efficiency and just 98th in defensive adjusted efficiency. One bright spot for the Golden Knights: KeShawn Hall. Hall is coming off a 40-point performance over the Arizona State Sun Devils, where he was 13-18 from the field and 10-10 from the charity stripe. On the season he is averaging 17.6 points per game and is shooting a fantastic 41.7% from three.
In the coming month, UCF has an unfathomable amount of tests. These include, but are not limited to: Houston, at Iowa St, at Kansas, at Baylor, Cincinnati, and Iowa St (again). In the coming 9 games (until Feb 15th), KenPom predicts a record of 1-8. This means they have an absolute gauntlet of Big 12 games to even be fighting in late February. All hope is not lost for the Golden Knights, though; tough challenges mean even 3 or 4 wins in the stretch could define them as a program that’s worth a tournament bid. As of now, team records Bracketology gives the Golden Knights a slim 18% chance at an NCAA tournament bid. Still, plenty to play for from a UCF team that has been solidly consistent so far into the year.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are led by a three-headed monster of JT Toppin, Darrion Williams, and Chance McMillian. All of which are major contributors to this year's squad, averaging 16.3, 16.4, and 14.9, respectively. Toppin and Williams top the scoring charts and chip in with 8.7 and 5.6 rpg. Meanwhile, McMilian has been extremely effective in his >80% usage for the Red Raiders. His 148.5 Box Rtg and 7.7 RAPM rank him in the top 10 of all D1 College hoops! His 48% clip from beyond the arc and his 80% rate at the rim makes him an ultra-efficient do-it-all on the offensive side of the ball. All of this, while playing plus defense and turning the ball over less than 10% of the time, makes McMillan the true heartbeat of this year’s Texas Tech squad.
KenPom loves Texas Tech. Although they are unranked according to the AP Poll, KenPom has them at 12th in the nation. Their 7th-ranked offense that is also 10th in efg (effective field goal pct) surely helps with that. To pair, they also hold a 37.8% oreb%, which is good for 17th in the country, and beyond solid defense that checks in at 51st in D1 play.
So far into the season, Texas Tech has fared relatively well. They have had strong outings versus Utah and BYU and almost squeaked out a win versus a very talented Texas A&M team. Still, a weak early season schedule and losses to the likes of Saint Joseph's and UCF have done them no favors in the eyes of AP voters and bracketologists alike. Going forward, the Red Raiders have a few tests in the form of Arizona (twice), at Cincinnati, Baylor, and at Houston. The Red Raiders are undoubtedly talented; the advanced statistics that KenPom relies on says that exactly. But the key for coming out of the Big 12 alive will be consistency down the stretch. As of now, team records Bracketology gives Texas Tech a 56% chance at an NCAA tournament bid—the ultimate bubble team.
