Why does MLB's Cy Young Award Produce So Many "Fluke" Winners?
Big name pitchers dominate the MLB. From Verlander and Cole to Degrom and Scherzer, major Aces have always run rampant in baseball. With this greatness comes hardware in the form of the Cy Young award, named after Cy Young who pitched in over 900 games of his 22 year career where he held a 2.63 ERA and is heralded as one of MLB’s greatest pitchers of all time.
The Cy Young award is given to the AL and NL pitcher who was voted on being the best that year. But this seemingly straightforward award has been won by some odd names who seem to have no Hall of Fame case whatsoever. Some of these winners include Rick Porcello’s 2016 campaign with Boston, R.A. Dickey’s 2012 season with the Mets, or even Robbie Ray’s 2021 with Toronto. Now this is no slight to these names; in fact, these pitchers were nothing short of masterful in these seasons and after all, this is a single season award.
But why do we as baseball fans look back on these wins as flukes for these pitchers who were never able to continue to build on their legacy? The main two reasons: injuries and circumstances.
It’s no secret that arm injuries are a pitcher's worst nightmare. Despite recent progress in arm care regimens and arm surgeries to help repair any cumulative damages, arm injuries are still incredibly common in all pitchers. It is also so immensely difficult to come back from these injuries that even when a return is made things never return to the way they used to be. This can be the reason why many see Tim Lincecum’s Hall of Fame case as so confusing because anyone who watched could feel the dominance, but the stats show a short prime and someone who was never the same after the injuries. Many say that the best ability is availability, but the Cy Young award doesnt care; it only factors a single season of prime performance.
Another way that pitchers fall victim to the “fluke” Cy Young award win is circumstances and getting “figured out.” Sometimes it doesn't take a massive injury or a huge off-field issue to hurt a pitcher's career, guys like Jake Arrieta or Corey Kluber were undoubtedly awesome and deserving in their Cy Young year just fell out of major relevance due to a fall-off in performance. It can be difficult to know what goes on behind closed doors for these guys; and what exactly impacts a “fall off.” Still, we can appreciate the single season greatness that lies in many Cy Young award winners.
At the end of the day, the battle between hitter and pitcher is a cat and mouse game where the first one to be “figured out” loses. Sometimes a pitcher can go a whole season before their main pitch or sequence is “figured out.” Even if they continue on to have an unremarkable career, there is beauty in a single season of brilliance.
