The J

Heading into the weekend, the Liberty Flames were 23-3 and undefeated in conference play. This 15-0 conference record means the Flames have clinched the Conference USA regular season championship and bought a bit of hype as March nears. 

Before ripping this poor mid-major to shreds, let’s get into the positives. First, even with Saturday’s loss, a 23-4 record with 15-1 in conference play is nothing to sneeze at. Has their strength of schedule been great? No. But let’s call a spade a spade: no mid-major team is really going to impress with their SoS before they reach March (Gonzaga is NOT a mid-major). Still, a close win at Dayton and an eight-point road win over conference rival Sam Houston St. give the appearance of a good team. Going along with this, their 59th-ranked KenPom offensive rating of 118.2 is neat, especially when paired with being third in the nation in Effective FG% (60.2) and 3P% (39.5). They also do a good job of playing at their own speed (285th in average possession length) and keeping the ball between their own hands (17th in turnover %). Some of these statistics grabbed my eye last year when that Liberty squad also ranked similarly in efficiency and beyond. I bought low on the Flames before last year’s tournament, only for it all to die out after a 29-point loss at the webbed hands (feet) of the Oregon Ducks. This team does have quite a lot of continuity from last year’s roster (52.9%) and a ton of Division One basketball experience (3rd in the nation).

Yesterday, the 2026 iteration of these Liberty Flames lost to Western Kentucky (158th KP) by 21 points. Every problem with the Flames simultaneously revealed itself in a perfect storm that rained on their undefeated conference record. To lead off, they simply can’t rebound. Not only are the Flames the second shortest team in Division One college basketball, but their short players also take the majority of minutes from a non-existent bench (364th/365 in bench minutes). Plus, aside from senior Zach Cleveland, no Liberty player over 6’6″ plays more than 40% of minutes. Also ignoring Cleveland, no Liberty player (libertarian?) averages four or more rebounds per game. Beyond the height, free throws only account for 15.6% of their points (bottom 11 in D-1) while also shooting 69.6% on those attempts. On Saturday, these problems glared. On a day where the threes couldn’t fall (6/21), they were outrebounded 20-33, including putting up only one offensive rebound to the Hilltoppers’ ten. Brett Decker, Liberty’s lead-scoring guard, averages 16.6 points on an unbelievable 48.1% from three. On Saturday, he took three shots and ended with five points in 34 minutes.

KenPom rates this as the luckiest team in college basketball. As much as I would love to explain how this system works, it is at the very basic level: the deviation in win % comparing actual and expected records. Check out this hunk of basketball that threw me for a loop if you are more interested in the matter. If the Flames want to break out of this ‘lucky’ ideal and turn themselves into possible spring Cinderellas, they need to continue to find diverse scoring options that aren’t limited to Brett Decker Jr., Zach Cleveland, and three-pointers. Also: maybe grab a couple rebounds despite the small sizing. Here’s Taurean Prince if you need more help.